改变三北地区干旱荒漠面貌需水量的基本估计

ESTIMATION OF THE WATER REQUIREMENT FOR TRANSFERMING COMPLEXION OF DRY DESERT IN THE THREE-NORTH AREA

为了阐明向三北地区调水的必要性和紧迫性，首先阐述了三北地区的范围和多灾低产的农业生态经济现状，然后根据我国《八七扶贫攻坚计划》和第２、第３步发展战略目标，建立了农业发展战略目标仿真模型，求得２０００、２０１０和２０３０年的土地利用优化结构，各业总产量、总产值及农均收益，最后应用水量平衡原理对土地利用结构进行需水量验证。结果表明，要实现规划目标，到２０００、２０１０和２０３０年将分别缺水３８９４．４、４５４９．０和５６０５．５亿ｍ３。

To clarify the necessity and urgency of transfering water to ThreeNorth area,this paper expounds the range of this area and the present situation of agricultural ecological economy featured with more calamities and lower output.We established a simulating model of agricultural development strategy objectives according to Chinese '87 Antipoverty Storm Fortification Plan and the development strategy objectives of second and third stages,and obtained the optimized land use structure,total output,total output value of all levels of agriculture and industries,and the average income of peasents in the years of 2000,2010 and 2030.Finally,we verified the water volume reguired for the land utilization structure based on the Water Balance Principle.The result suggests that there will be a shortage of water of 389.44,454.90,560.55 billion m3in order to realize the planned goal in the years of 2000,2010 and 2030.It provides basis for decision making for central gorernment and departments concerned to transfer water from south to north in the western area of China.