山东省西北地区棉铃虫发生发展气象等级预报模型研究

Forecast Model of Cotton Bollworm Occurrence Based on Meteorological Data in Northwest Shandong Province

通过对历史资料的分析研究,寻找与棉铃虫发生发展有密切关系的气象条件及生物因子,建立棉铃虫累计卵量等级预报、预测模式。对2004～2006年的棉铃虫发生情况进行预测检验,效果良好,为棉铃虫的有效防治提供了科学依据,对农业防灾减灾和农业生产的持续发展具有重要的指导意义。

In this study a forecast model of cotton bollworm occurrence was established based on historical meteorological data and actual damage of this pest. This model was tested and confirmed well with the occurrence of cotton bollworm from 2004 to 2006,implying that the model can be used in effective prevention.