区域水资源短缺的多目标风险决策模型研究

Multi-objective risk decision-making model for regional water resources shortage

在水资源短缺风险分析和评价的基础上,构建了区域水资源短缺的多目标风险决策模型,并提出了求解方法。应用该模型对包括北京和天津在内的首都圈进行水资源短缺风险决策分析。结果表明,要解决首都圈的水资源短缺问题,南水北调的作用是不可忽视的,其它水资源管理措施的投入也应该掌握一定的规模,这样才能保证区域社会经济的可持续发展和区域水资源的可持续利用。

On the basis of analysis algorithm and evaluation method of water resources shortage risk, a multi-objective decision-making model for regional water shortage risk and the algorithm for solution are proposed. The model was applied to study the situation of Capital Area in China, including the Beijing City and Tianjin City. The result shows that the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is indispensable for minimizing the risk of water shortage in this area. At the same time other management measures should be also adopted in order to guarantee the sustainable development of regional economy and regional sustainable utilization of water resources.