黄河口清水沟流路冲淤发展与使用年限预测

Prediction of silting process and workable lifetime of the Qingshuigou flow path in Yellow River

本文利用作者开发的一、二维连接的黄河口整体冲淤数学模型，根据有、无古贤水库二种情况进入黄河下游的水沙条件，对未来黄河口清水沟流路的淤积发展过程进行了计算研究，并根据计算结果对流路使用年限、河道向海域延伸的安全距离、淤积量和淤积分布、海域容沙量及海洋动力输沙能力等相关问题进行了分析探讨，旨在为黄河口的整治规划提供科学依据。计算研究结果表明，各流路组合运行方案的清水沟流路使用年限为53～77年，古贤水库的修建和不同流路的交替组合使用皆有利于延长清水沟流路的可使用年限。有、无古贤水库条件下河口的人海输沙能力均较为稳定，海域年均输沙量分别为2．53亿t和2．71亿t左右。

The 1-D and 2-D integrated sediment transport model for river and estuary is applied to analyze the flow and sediment transport of the Qingshuigou flow path in the Yellow River. According to the calculation results the workable lifetime of flow path, the extendable safe distance of the trail channel, the sediment deposition volume and its distribution, sediment storage capacity and sediment transport capacity of seawater of the Yellow River mouth are investigated. The predicted workable lifetimes for several working schemes are about 53 to 77 years. The establishment of Guxian Reservoir and adopting alternatively operation of different combined scheme of several flow paths is in favor of extending the workable lifetime.