基于空间平滑法的风电场短期出力预测模型

Short-term Output Forecasting Model of Wind Site Based on Spatial Smoothing

风电机组发电出力的影响因素有很多,如风速、紊流、风机塔影效应等,这些因素的随机变化都会引起风机出力的波动。随着我国风电规模的迅速增长,风电装机容量在总发电容量中所占比例也越来越大,如果不能准确地对系统内风电场出力进行预测,那么电网调度(发电)计划将不能及时做出相应调整,电力系统的安全可靠性也就难以得到保障。对风机功率特性曲线使用了线性差值法,来确定单台风机在给定风速下的出力情况。应用两个风电场出力的相关系数,进行两个风电场总出力的预测误差分析,然后应用空间平滑法推导出两个风电场总出力的计算公式。应用相似的方法推导出了一个区域内多个风电场总出力的空间平滑表达式。

There are many influencing factors of wind power unit such as wind velocity, confused flowing, tower-shadow effect and so on, which will bring fluctuation of wind turbine output. As China＇s wind power scale grows rapidly, the capacity proportion of wind power and the total generators is also growing. If we cannot forecast the wind sites output in system accurately, the power grid dispatch planning will not be adjusted timely, so that the safety and reliability of system will not be guaranteed. The differential algorithm with power curve is adopted to determine the output of single wind in some wind velocity. The correlation of two wind sites is applied to analyze the forecasting error of their total output. The spatial smoothing is used to deduce the expressions of two wind sites＇ total output, The similar method is used to derive a spatial smoothing expression formula of several wind sites in a large area.