摘要
采用现代经济计量学的GARCH(1,1)模型、Engle-Granger两步协整检验和误差修正模型等对汇率波动对中国从美进口的影响进行研究,实证研究表明:中国从美进口长期收入效应和价格效应存在且较弱、汇率波动效应不存在;中国从美进口误差修正机制存在且较强;中国从美进口短期价格效应和汇率波动效应存在且较弱;美国政府通过人民币升值和增加浮动性来增加对华出口和向中国转嫁次贷危机不利影响的效果是非常有限的。
This paper researches the influence of exchange ratefluctuation on China＇s import from US by GARCH（1,1） model,Engle-Granger model and so on.Empirical study shows the long-term income effect and price effect of China＇s import from US is significant and weaker;the effect of real RMB/US exchange rate fluctuation of China＇s import from US is not significant.There is China＇s import from US error-correction organism,whose function is strong.The short-term price effect and the effect of real RMB/US exchange rate fluctuation of China＇s import from US is significant and weaker.
出处
《辽宁工程技术大学学报（社会科学版）》
2008年第3期252-254,共3页
Journal of Liaoning Technical University(Social Science Edition)
关键词
汇率
波动
进口
协整
exchange rate
fluctuation
import
co-integration
