交通行业生产率变动的Bootstrap-Malmquist指数分析(1980—2005)

Productivity in China’s Transportation Sector:A Malmquist Index and Bootstrap Approach(1980—2005)

交通行业是一个资本高投入、能源高消耗和污染高排放的行业，尽管中国改革以来的交通运输业取得了巨大成就，还鲜有从生产率视角对该行业的研究。本文应用Malmquist-DEA方法测算了中国交通全行业及四个主要部门1980-2005年间的生产率变动，并引入Bootstrap—DEA方法估计了技术效率变化及其置信区间，通过Bootstrap纠偏提高了效率测度的准确性。测评结果表明，20世纪90年代初期以来交通行业TFP增速有所下降，技术效率显著下降；2000年之后，交通各部门的技术进步率大幅度上升，技术效率继续下降。中国交通行业的发展模式面临转型，这也是中国经济增长方式转变的重要组成部分。

China＇s transportation sector has made great achievements since the reform and opening-up, but there are few studies on this sector from the perspective of productivity, considering it is a sector with investment intensity, energy consumption intensity and pollution emission intensity. This paper adopts the approach of Malmquist DEA to evaluate the productivity of the whole transportation sector and four sub-sectors over the period 1980- 2005 in China, and introduce Bootstrap methodology to estimate confidence intervals for technical efficiency, which provides a correction for the inherent bias in Malmquist DEA estimation. We find that TFP growth and technical efficiency changes of the whole sector have declined since 1990, and the technical progress of the four sub-sectors rises obviously since 2000, whereas the technical efficiency presents to fall. China＇s transportation sector requires a transition of development pattern, which is also an important part of Chinese economic transition of growth pattern.