中国啤酒大麦和麦芽的生产与市场

The production and market of China brewage barley and malt

我国的啤酒与啤酒原料行业。虽然在整个国民经济这块大堡糕中占很小的比重，但也涉及到500余家啤酒工厂、120余家麦芽厂、30余家科研单位、经营1200余万亩的广大啤酒大麦生产者和众多的啤酒大麦经销商。

<Abract>The price of China brewage barley is keeping an aston-ishing high level during the period from 2007 to 2008. Now, the majority of enterprises in malt and beer industries begin to focus on the new situtation from 2008 to 2009. The topics they are concerning mainly involves seven aspects, such as the import and domestic brewage barley supplies, international agricultural products supplies and their price fluctation, pro-duction cost and the bottom line of the brewage barley and malt price, impact of severe weather, the capacity of malt production in next year, the improvement of technology, the tolerance ability of malt supply deficiancy and price rise, as well as how to make desicision in face of information dissymmetry. During the period from 2007 to 2008, the situation of 'China beer materials market is really unexpected, because of :the dramatically rising price of barley which also brought about ;quality and credibility challenges. The primary reason is the unbalance of supply and demand. Drought caused less import from Australia and less yield in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang production regions. Over-speculation and information dissymmetry also increase the abnomal phenomenons in market. Meanwhile, the change of brewage barley market gives rise to the change of wheat market. In fact, wheat malt market is booming with the barley malt price rising. However, the change of barley and malt market also promotes the change of mate-rials purchase in beer indus-try and related technique improvement. In 2008, the planting area of China brewage barley increases substantially compared to 2007. The main planting regions include Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Guansu, Xinjiang and Yunnan. The yield could reach 3.7 million tons on the condition of no serious drought. Even if it is dry in this summer, the yield may still ensure 3.2 million tons approximately. It is estimated that the capacity of China malt product in 2008 could reach 5.2 million tons. The output of beer products also is estimated about 44 billion liters. That means 4.2 million tons barley is demanded in which 0.6 to 1 million needs to be imported. Beside of demand and supply, cost also has impact on price. Since 2003, the costs of fertilizer, feeds, machinery operation, water, electricity and labour have kept rising. Relatively, the cost of barley rises 400 to 1000 RMB per ton in this year. In addtition of farmers' high expectation, price probably can not fall greatly in this year. Therefore, how to optimize resource allocation becomes vital to the industry development. The strategies recommended include selecting excellent varieties for barley breeding and the best location for planting, as well as achieving intensive and large-scale production.