新疆中强震预报的探讨

Discussion on Moderate-strong Earthquake Prediction in Xinjiang

利用物理意义清晰、彼此间及与地震目录关联度小的预测方法,进行了在新疆预测中强地震及其发震地点和发震条件的探讨。结果表明:3级地震频次维持3个月以上低值和5级地震维持6个月平静反映了6级以上地震的中短期发震背景,地震对应率大于83%;将地震活跃期6级地震发生后3个月内研究区发生的4级地震作为响应地震,其250 km范围内一年内发生中强震的为62%,两年内发生中强震的为79%;以响应区b值出现低值—回返作为预备震源可能发震的条件,其后一年内发震的为75%,2年内发震的为92%。

With prediction methods which have clear physical- meaning, are less related each other and with catalogue, the possibility location and condition of moderate-strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region are discussed. The result shows that the low frequency of M3 earthquake lasting longer than 3 months, M5 earthquake quietness lasting 6 months reflect mid-short term character of occurring M ≥ 6 earth- quakes, and corresponding rate is greater than 83%. Taking M4 earthquakes occurring within 3 months after M6 earthquake during the earthquake active phase as the response earthquake, the rate of occuring a mid-strong earthquake is 62% in the range of 250 km within one year, and 79% within 2 years. Taking low value - returning of b value in response region as possible occurring condition of prepared focal region, occurring rate is 7507o within one year, and 9207o within 2 years.