最优沉降组合预测模型及应用

Optimization Settlement Combined Forecasting Model and its Application

沉降预测在公路工程建设中具有重要的意义。利用实测沉降资料进行路堤沉降预测的常用模型,可以较好地反映其沉降变化发展规律及发展趋势,但尚存在一定的局限性,为了尽多的利用全部的有用信息,利用"组合预测"的思想,提出一种采用多种常用预测模型进行组合的预测方法,从而可根据有限的实测数据达到预测路基沉降的目的。组合预测法的关键是确定组合的权重,在讨论传统组合预测方法基础上,引入熵值法计算权重,工程实例表明,熵权法较其他权重计算方法精度更高,有明显的优越性。

Settlement prediction is very important in the road construction. The normal model for embankment settlement forecasting by using of settlement data can fit well its settlement variation regularity and development trend. But certain limitation still exists. In order to make full use of the useful information as much as possible, with the idea of combined prediction, an optimization settlement combined forecasting model has been put forward, which can forecast the embankment development by using limited measured settlement data. The analysis of engineering practice indicates that the entropy weight combined forecasting model can forecast well, with obvious advantages.