摘要
房地产市场的发展有着明显的周期性,对房地产周期的识别有助于政府及其他市场参与者进行科学的决策.本文先对1992-2003年的北京房地产市场周期发展各阶段进行编码,将编码结果作为训练的学习样本,再用ELman网络构建房地产周期识别模型.识别结果表明:2004年北京房地产市场处于收缩阶段,国家宏观政策对房地产市场的理性发展起到了积极的作用.
Real estate cycle were analyzed using time sequence analysis and neural network model to help market participants identify real estate cycle and make reasonable decisions. The time sequence analysis was used to distinguish the different development phases of the Beijing real estate market from 1992to 2003. A real estate cycle diagnose model was developed by the results and ELman neural network. This model shows that the Beijing real estate market in 2004 was in the shrinkage stage duo to government polices.
出处
《咸宁学院学报》
2008年第3期8-11,共4页
Journal of Xianning University
基金
咸宁学院校级项目资助(KY0719)
关键词
房地产周期
ELMAN
网络
Real estate cycle
Cycle diagnose
ELman neural network
