滇池流域资源环境人口承载力研究

On the Bearing Capacity of Resources Environment Population along Dianchi Lake

目前滇池流域的人口离土地承载力的上限还有距离，因此各个资源环境因子承载力从小到大的排列为：水环境→水资源→土地资源→大气环境→土壤环境。滇池流域人口承载力可分为三三个层次。第一层次：由于水资源严重不足和水环境恶化，目前的人口总量已超过生态承载力。第二层次：若主要通过科技手段和人文治理，使水环境恶化的状况改善，主城的自来水可供人口为438～456万人。第三层次：如果未来牛栏江和金沙江调水工程能够实施，则主城人口可以达到滇池盆地的土地人口容量500—550万人，到此土地承载力的极限后，再无人口增长的空间。

There is still a distance to the upper limit between the population and the land in Dianchi Lake basin. The bearing capacity of different elements of environment resources is ranged from minor to major as follows ： wate environment→water sources→soil resources→air environment→soil environment. The bearing capacity of Dianch Lake basin is divided into three levels. The first, because of serious lack of water resources and deterioration of wa ter environment, the population now has surpassed the ecological bearing capacity. The second, if mainly by th, scientific and technological methods and human administration, to better the state of deterioration of water, the wa ter in city proper can offer 438 to 456 million people. The third, if the future water transfer of Niulan River and Jin sha River can be realized, the population of the main city proper can get 500 to 550 million people inside the lanc population capacity of Dianchi Basin, which is the extreme limit of the land bearing capacity and no room for the in crease of population.