中国M_2/GDP过高的成因分析及调控路径选择——基于动态超调与跨期权衡视角

Reasons for Higher M_2/GDP in China and Selection of the Regulating Path

本文以动态IS-LM-BP模型为基础,以跨期权衡为出发点,以国际货币供给失衡以及中国拥有巨额外汇储备为研究背景,对M2/GDP持续走高这一经济现象进行了分析。结论认为,M2/GDP的变化并非单一的货币现象,而是受循环于实物经济体系之外的货币供给量的变化以及国际贸易不均衡、金融制度扭曲、经济结构缺陷等一系列因素的影响,我国金融管理当局应使用各种政策的组合来调整M2与GDP产出的关系。

Based on dynamic IS - LM - BP model, this paper analyzes the sustained economic phenomenon of the higher M2/GDP in China from the perspective of intertemporal tradeoff as well as the context of China＇ s huge foreign exchange reserve and international money disequilibrium between supply and demand. And the conclusion is that M2/GDP＇ s changing is affected by a number of factors such as money supply in the circulation outside of the real economy, the international trade disequilibrium, the financial system distortions and economic structure deficiencies rather than a single monetary phenomenon. China＇ s monetary authorities should use a combination of various policies to adjust relationship between M2 and GDP.