2007年钯市场评述及后市预测

Review of Palladium Market in 2007 and Forecast in 2008

回顾了2007年钯市场走势,分析了钯市场的供应和需求情况。汽车催化剂对钯的需求继续成为钯市场最重要的需求领域,2007年出现8%的增长;预计汽油机车中的以钯代铂工作将继续,柴油机车中出现对钯的新需求;安泰科预计,2008年汽车工业中钯的需求将进一步增长;首饰工业中钯的需求因中国消费量的下降而减少,但欧美的钯首饰消费出现增长。影响钯市场供应的不确定因素在俄罗斯库存,预计这部分库存将在今后2～3年间下降到正常水平。安泰科对钯市场的长期趋势仍旧看好,预计2008年的平均价格为380USD/oz。

The tendency of palladium market was reviewed, and the state for the supply and requirement was analyzed. Palladium demand from Auto-catalyst is forecast to rise by 8 per cent in 2007. Auto makers are still switching their catalysts requirement to palladium from platinum on many vehicles. New more demand has showed from diesel catalysts. The uncertain issue focuses on Russia stock. The market anticipate that Russia stock will decline to normal level in two or three years later. Antaike keep it＇s rosy prospect of palladium. We forecast an USD 380 per ounce average price in 2008.