火工品可靠性(或安全性)评估的Bayes方法

Application of Bayes Method in Evaluating the Reliabilityor Safety of Pyrotechnics

对火工品可靠性（或安全性）评估中通常采用的经典方法进行了剖析。介绍了数理统计方法学中近年来兴起的Ｂａｙｅｓ统计推断方法，并给出了此法在火工品二项分布、正态分布情况下，对可靠度评估的应用实例。

The conventional method to evaluate the reliability of pyrotechnics was discussed. The Bayesmethod of recently developed in mathematical statistics was recommended. Two examples of normal distribution and binomial distribution were given.