应急交通疏散研究现状与展望

Research status and prospect of emergency transportation evacuation

为有序实施交通组织,提高应急疏散效率,分析了飓风、洪水等能预警、观望和应对的自然灾害的特性,研究了国内外突发事件应急疏散的机理、交通组织方法与交通仿真技术应用,结合北京2008奥林匹克运动会应急疏散预案制定的实际,确定了适合中国国情和交通运输环境条件的应急疏散规划与管理研究方向,并建立相应的方法体系。研究结果表明:中国交通疏散方式应以公共汽车为主,并需从完善疏散规划方法体系,整合路径选择、交通控制以及疏散时间计算等交通关键技术着手,提高交通疏散效率和组织管理水平,通过交通仿真及ITS技术构建应急交通疏散决策与评价支持系统。

In order to actualize a well-ordered transportation organization and improve the efficiency of emergency evacuation, the characters of some natural disasters, such as hurricane, flood ect, which could be early warned, observed and treated were analyzed, the mechanisms of emergency evacuation, the methods of traffic organization and the technical application of traffic simulation at home and abroad were studied, and with regard to prepare the emergency evacuation contingency plan for 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing, the research orientation and systematic planning method of emergency evacuation which were fit for Chinese situation and traffic environment were proposed. Analysis result indicates that bus transit should be used as the main transportation evacuation mode in China, transportation evacuation efficiency and organization levels can be improved by perfecting the planning system of emergency evacuation, integrating the key traffic technologies such as route selection, traffic control and evacuation time calculation, and a＇decision and evaluation system of emergency transportation evacuation is established by applying traffic simulation and ITS technologies. 2 figs, 42 refs.