重庆市耕地资源变化及驱动力

Cultivated land change and driving forces in Chongqing city

以统计数据为基础,分析了重庆市的耕地变化情况,研究结果表明:该市耕地自1980年后呈先略有增加后逐年下降趋势,但减少速度呈先小后大再降低而后增加又降低变化规律。不同经济区耕地数量变化总体趋势逐年减少,以1997年后变化最明显。导致耕地变化的驱动力不同时段有所不同,除了有一定程度的自然影响外,早期主要是人口不断增加,后期是生态政策、人口增长和经济快速发展,且在不同区县影响程度也有所不同。在此基础上提出了相应的建议以促进区域耕地资源占补平衡,实现经济效益、社会效益和生态效益统一。

Taking Chongqing as a case and using statistic data, the cultivated land change and its driving forces were analyzed using the principal component analysis in SPSS software. The results show that the cultivated land area changed in Chongqing during the last decade. The area of cultivated land decreased with fluctuation. The driving forces of cultivated land change were determined by PCA between cultivated land and socio-economic factors. In different periods, driving forces of cultivated land were different and natural driving has some effect on the cultivated land change. In the first period, population was the main driver force; but in the recent period, the government policies, population increase, and economic increase were the principal driving force in the study area Based on the cultivated land and its driving forces, some suggestions are proposed for the rational usage of the cultivated land to ensure the sustainable management and ecological safety.