液体推进剂公路运输泄漏风险的模糊综合评价

An innovated fuzzy overall evaluation model for liquid-leakage risks in highway transportation

针对液体推进剂在公路运输中泄漏事故发生的多样性、复杂性和不确定性等特点,建立公路运输偏二甲肼(UDMH)的泄漏事故模型。通过层次分析法确定各影响因素的权重,运用模糊综合评价思想对液体推进剂在公路运输中的泄漏风险进行了评价。结果表明,液体推进剂在公路运输中的泄漏风险为第2等级,风险较大;其影响因素中安全管理所占的权重最大,其次为运输设备状况、人员素质、运输中充装过量和路况,相关单位可依此排序制定预防措施。

The present article intends to introduce an innovated fuzzy overall evaluation model for liquid-leakage risks in highway transportation. Liquid propellants, widely used in the spaceflight area, have their own particular features, such as strong causticity, toxicity, inflammability, explosibility and so on, are prone to some special hazards in the course of transportation. In view of diversified and uncertain causes leading to their leakage during highway transportation, the paper has established an evaluation model of the UDMH transportation risks. For the convenience of easier categorization, we have analyzed the commonly observed causes that are likely leading to the above said transportation hazards, we have classified such risk-involving incidents into 5 categories, such as safety administration, transportation and traffic containers or other facilities, over-loading, human operational inability, road qualities as well as the environmental conditions. And for the sake of analysis convenience, each of the above said risk-laden factors can be put into the evaluation factors or index system. And all the fuzzy membership degree of the factors or indexes have been weighed and confirmed by a group of experts, and then calculated in accordance with the analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Based on the above calculation, the overall evaluation method has been established on the fuzzy mathematic theory so as to evaluate the risk degrees. The evaluation results we have done indicate that the risk degree is the second, which means a ＂bigger＂ risk and a hazard process. Our evaluation results can be extended to other liquid propellants so as to make it known that more attention should be paid to the safety transportation. What is more, since the factor or index weighing and calculation of the safety administration aspect is usually higher than other aspects, with the mutual influence of the likely risk-causing factors interacting with each other, the key point to reduce the transportation leakage is to improve and perfect the transportation system and the security organization. At the same time, the inspection and maintain of the tragic facilities are also important for their safe transportation, as well as the enhancement of the handling skills of human resources and the road perambulation before the task.