基于PDL模型的我国省域人口总量预测方法研究——以甘肃省为例

The Study on the Forecasting Method of Regional Gross Population Based on PDL Model——Taking Gansu as an Example

在我国省域人口总量预测领域,基于时间序列分析的PDL模型目前尚未得到充分使用。文章以甘肃省为例,运用混合有限PDL模型,通过其与分要素预测法之间的预测效果对比,对其在这一领域的应用进行尝试性的分析和探讨。

The mathematical model forecasting method is one of the most frequently used method in the field of regional population forecasting. However,on the reason that the PDL model has not been used adequately, the author tries to make a new trial in this field taking Gansu province as an example.