人类活动对别拉洪河流域水文情势的影响研究

Impact of Human Activities on the Hydrological Regime of Bielahong River Watershed

为了研究人类活动对水文情势的影响，以别拉洪河流域1957～2004年水文、气象数据为基础，详细分析了降水量、蒸发量及径流量等要素的变化特征；利用累积滤波法、Kendal秩次相关法、径流量年内分配的不均匀系数和径流量的变差系数对径流量的变化及其趋势进行了分析；利用降水-径流双累积曲线法和Mann-Kendall法对径流量序列进行了突变检验；定量研究了人类活动对径流量的影响。结果表明，1957～2004年别拉洪河流域年径流量显著减少，1966年年径流量发生减少突变；人类活动对年径流量减少总量的影响率大于60％，是导致该流域水文循环要素发生变化的主导因素，其次才是年降水量。

To study the influence of human activities on the hydrological regime in Bielahong River watershed, the monitored runoff and meteorological data from 1957 to 2004 were used to analyse the change on the hydrological regime. Statistical analysis with stochastic hydrology methods showed that there was markedly decline in the runoff. Analyses of Mann - Kendall method and Double - Mass Curve indicated that the abrupt decline in the runoff occurred in 1966, which resulted from human activities such as reclamation of wetland and agricultural water use. To assess the influence of human activities on the decline in runoff, a correlation between annual precipitation and runoff within period without influence of human activities was established and then used to simulate the natural runoff for period with human activities. The simulated result, compared with the monitored runoff data, indicated that the decline of runoff due to human activities accounted for more than 60% of the total decline of runoff. This demonstrated that human activity, not precipitation, was the main driving force that resulted in the decline of runoff in the Bielahong River watershed.