GM（1，1）和新陈代谢模型的比较

Comparison of GM（1,1） and Metabolizing Model

灰色模型具有所需数据少、预测精度高和无需先验信息的特点。本文通过建立GM（1，1）模型和新陈代谢模型实例预测某省火灾事故发生量，并将两种方法相比较，为相关部门提供科学的决策依据。结果表明灰色模型简单实用，预测精度高。而在此实例中，GM（1，1）模型比新陈代谢的预测精度更高、预测误差更小。

Grey Model is with the characters of less date, high precision and without prior information. In the paper, a Grey Model GM （1,1） and a Metabolizing Model are used for the fire prediction of some province and compared them to provide decision references for the concerning governments. The results show that Grey Model is a simple process, effective practicality and high precision. Meanwhile, GM （1,1） is of higher precision and less prediction errors than Metabolizing Model＇s.