石油价格对初级产品价格的影响研究

The Study on the Effect of Oil Price on Primary Commodities' Prices

本文分析考察了石油与14种初级品价格的长期互动关系。通过研究本文认为,石油价格与相关初级农产品价格间存在较强的长期均衡性关系,与初级金属品关系次之。然而并不能完全认定近年来石油价格的上升是引发各类初级品价格上涨的主要原因,其中可能存在更为复杂的作用机制。这种互动影响的传递渠道及方式也为干预初级品价格提供了可能。

This paper discusses the long term effect of oil price on 14 primary commodities＇ prices. The study shows that there has a firm long term equilibrium relationship between oil price and food price. But it can not draw the conclusion that the rising oil price caused the soaring of other primary commodities＇ prices. The transfer mechanism is complex but worthy of studying.