美在华直接投资对中美贸易不平衡的影响

Empirical Study on the Impact of US FDI on China-US Bilateral Trade Imbalances

本文利用美在华直接投资和中美贸易的相关数据通过协整检验并构建误差修正模型,较为清晰地说明中美贸易不平衡问题在很大程度上是由美在华直接投资所引致并扩大,这种引致过程主要通过美在华投资企业加工贸易返销美国造成。实质上体现了国际产业结构演进的必然结果,中美贸易不平衡的局面会作为投资贸易一体化趋势下的全球各国经济关系中的重要现象而长期存在。同时,这种贸易不平衡局面会在中国经济各方面快速发展的一个相对长期的过程中趋于平衡。

Using related data, including the US direct investment in China, Sino-US bilateral trade, based on the investment and trade integration framework, this paper analyzes the reason of Sino-US bilateral trade imbalance more clearly through cointegration test and error correction model. The resuits show that the situation of trade imbalance is inevitable, which is partly caused by the impact of US FDI through counter sales and constitutionally international trade and investment integration and the evolution of international industrial structure. Meanwhile, with the rapid development of China＇s economy in all aspects, this situation will be changed and tend toward balance in the long run.