基于计量经济模型的中国耕地数量变化政策与资产因素分析

Land asset and policy factors for acreage changes of cultivated land in China based on econometric model

耕地保护是中国土地管理科学中的难点之一,科学辨识其驱动因子具有重要的现实意义。该文在假设其他影响因子不变的情况下,构建了基于资源-资产-政策理念的土地利用概念模型,采用计量经济面板数据方法,以中国国家尺度及东中西部区域尺度上1998～2002年耕地变化过程为例证,重点对土地资产-政策因子进行研究。结果表明:1)在国家尺度上,增强土地政策管理力度、降低农用地增值收益倍数(提升失地农民保障水平),增加耕地投入水平有助于耕地保护;化肥施用量的增加将会造成耕地减少;农业总产值比重、种植业生产水平及农户经营耕地面积没有显著的解释效用;2)在区域尺度上,提升耕地保护政策贯彻力度、提高被征地农户补偿水平、增加耕地投入均有利于耕地保护;东部地区农业总产值比重的降低、西部地区灌溉面积适量减少对耕地保护起到了积极的作用。综合"资源-资产-政策"三方面因素可以更好地解释耕地保护的行为,并有针对性地改进和加强耕地保护工作。

Cultivated land protection is one of the key difficulties in land management, and analysis on factors of cultivated land variation in China has significant meanings for development. Based on hypothesis that other factors are constant, conceptual model was firstly constructed for land use with integration of land assets, land use policies and land resources, then factors for variations of cultivated land in 1998-2002 were analyzed using econometric method on both national and regional scale, especially for the asset-political factors. The results show that, on a national scale, enhancement of land use policies, decrease of multiples of land value increment, increase of cultivated land inputs are helpful for cultivated land protection; increase of fertilizer leads to the decline of cultivated land; ratio of gross agricultural output, yields of crop and size of cultivated land per rural household do not explain the variations of cultivated land significantly. On regional scale, intensification of land use policies, promotion of supplement level for rural residents losing cultivated land and improvement of cultivated land input are advantageous for cultivated land protection. Specifically, reducing ratio of gross agricultural output in East China, and decreasing areas of irrigated land in West China, could be beneficial for maintenance of cultivated land. This paper concluded that integration of land resources-land assets-land use policies could better explain the variation of cultivated land protection, and then could take priorities to improve cultivated land protection in China based on the research results.