2010—2020年我国轿车市场需求预测分析

Analysis of the Need Estimation in Our Country's Car Market from 2010 to 2020

从我国经济发展状况和收入分配状况的角度,通过回归分析对2010—2020年我国国民经济、人均GDP以及汽车需求量进行了预测。并从人均国民收入、汽车价格下跌、道路条件的改善这3个主要因素的角度检验了上述预测的合理性。得出我国应该大力发展汽车工业,鼓励轿车进入家庭,使汽车产业成为我国国民经济支柱产业的结论。

Through the development of China＇s economy and the income assigns condition,using nonlinear analysis,the author made an estimation of the automotive market demanding of the year 2010 and 2020.Basewd one three main factors including Personal citizen＇s income,the declines of car price and the improvement of the road condition,examined the rationality of the above-mentioned estimation.Finally,a conclusion was drew that China should keep developing the automobile industry and encouraging fmai1ies to own cars.