应用模糊数学预测大坝位移

Application of Fuzzy Mathematics to Predicting Horizontal Displacements of Dams

预测大坝水平位移对于大坝安全来说非常重要.由于影响因素太多太复杂,以致用各种传统方法建立的大坝水平位移预报模型的精度难以提高.本文以佛子岭连拱坝13号垛的坝顶水平位移为例,应用模糊数学中多因素假言推理方法,导出了可预测5日后大坝水平位移的模型,该模型预报提高了预报精度约30%

Predicting the horizontal displacement of a dam is of great importance for its safety. Since there are many complicated factors iufluencing the horizontal displacement of a dam, it seems difficult to improve the precision of the predicting models based on various traditional methods. In this paper, the horizontal displacement of the crest of the 13th buttress of Fuziling multiple-arch dam is predicted with fuzzy mathematics. A more precise method for predicting the horizontal displacement after five days has been presented, which established is based on multifactor modus ponens in fuzzy mathematics.