二滩水电站泄洪消能布置方案的风险分析

Risk Analysis of Flood Relief Scheme of Ertan Project

应用风险分析方法对设计方案进行评价分析,可使设计方案更具合理性、科学性.本文对二滩工程泄洪枢纽的设计方案进行了风险分析,并根据分析结果,建议了工程的设计方案和洪水标准.本文分析结果可供二滩泄洪枢纽设计时参考,所提出的风险分析方法也可用于其它工程设计方案的比较和分析.

Risk analysis is a new problem in hydro-power construction. Its importance is being recognized by more and more hydraulic engineers. The comparison and evaluation of design schemes with risk analysis is more reasonable and scientific. In the paper, the method of risk analysis is used to analyse the flood relief scheme of Ertan Project. On the basis of the research results, the design flood return period of 5000 year is suggessted, and it is also pointed out that design scheme I of Ertan Project is the most optimal one. In China, Ertan Project is the first one for which the design schemes are compared using risk analysis. The risk analysis method presented in the paper can be used in other engineering practice.