评估碰撞危险度方法的探讨

Study of the Method of Assessing Collision Risk

确定两船或多船会遇中潜在的可能碰撞危险是正确判断碰撞危险的关键之一。本文从信息论理论出发，采用模糊数学原理提出了一种评估碰撞危险的新方法。该方法考虑了目标船行动的不确定性以及多船会遇中存在的危险性推理碰撞危险度，能真实地反映出驾驶人员在决定采取避让行动过程中的操船心理，因此能直接作为在两船或多船会遇中采取避让行动的依据。

To ascertain the potential collision risk is a key point for collision risk assessment in the encounter of two or more vessels. In this paper, entropy theory and fuzzy theory adopted, an assessment model for ship's collision risk is established. This method, taking into consideration the uncertainty of mariner's behaviour to collision avoidance and additional risk in multiple ship encounters,reflects mariners' psychological factor in the process of making collision avoidance decision. Therefore this model can be directly used for the reference of making collision avoidance actions.