灰色模型在旅游客源市场预测中的运用

Grey Model Application in Forecasting of Tourism Marketing

通过对近几年来江苏省海外客源市场——日本游客数量的统计数据分析,根据客流量与时间的关系,利用灰色系统理论中一种特殊的线性动态预测模型,建立了旅游人数与旅游时间的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,探讨了GM(1,1)灰色预测模型在旅游客源市场预测中的应用问题,以期对今后游客数量的预测,合理规划客源市场提供科学的依据.

On the basis of historic data of Jiangsu main tourism marketing（Japan）, the paper suggeste a GM （1,1） grey forecasting model according to the amount of tourist and time relationships and used a special linear dynamic forecasting model in grey system theory. It discussed the applying of GM （1, 1 ） grey forecasting model in the forecasting of foreign tourism marketing, in order to forecast the quantity of tourists exactly and supply some reference for planning tourism marketing.