考虑时间不确定性的研制过程评估与优化方法

Evaluated and Optimized Method of Development Process Considering the Time Risk

迭代是研制过程的一个基本特征。针对产品研制中的顺序设计迭代,考虑设计活动完成时间的不确定性,采用多阶段Markov过程对研制过程进行建模,建立任务完成时间预测模型。在此基础上以给定风险下的完成时间最小为目标,对研制过程进行优化建模。实例分析说明了时间预测与过程优化的建模方法,并用仿真结果进行了对比验证。分析表明,该方法能较好地反映研制过程顺序迭代特点,可为优化产品研制过程、缩短研制周期提供有效工具。

The iteration is one of the basic characteristics in the development process. Through the sequential design iteration analysis for the product development, taking the issue of time uncertainty into account, a predictive model of sequential iteration in development process is built by applying the multi-stage Markov process. Based on that, an optimized modeling for the development process targeting at minimized completion time under given risk level is achieved. Case studies have been used to demonstrate how the time prediction and process optimization modeling method works. The simulation technique is used to further confirm the results from this analytical model. The method can reflect the characteristic of the sequential iterative in the engineering design and is proved as an efficient tool to optimize the product development process and shorten the development cycle.