径流调节概率法在多年调节水库中的应用

Application of Probability Method of Runoff Regulation in Carry-over Storage Reservior

地表水源将逐步取代地下水成为我省今后城市生活及工业供水的主要水源,由于我省地表水年际、年内变化较大,而城市生活及工业用水保证率较高,径流调节计算中传统的时历法计算对于多年调节水库难于考虑稀遇的径流变化和组合情况,计算成果可靠性较低。文中主要介绍径流调节概率法中综合法的基本思路,并以张峰水库为例说明了综合法的详细计算过程。计算结果表明综合法所计算的各用水户的供水保证率略高于时历法,说明时历法径流调节成果是偏于安全的,张峰水库还有进一步扩大供水的可能性。

Surface water supply will replace ground water as the major water supply system for domestic and industry water supply in Shanxi Province in recent years. As the annual and seasonal changes of runoff are significant in Shanxi Province and the reliability of domestic and industry water supply is high, the Chronological Series Method （CSM） is difficult to consider the rare situations of runoff combination, so the calculation result for carry-over storage reservoir is less reliable. This paper introduces the methodology for Comprehensive Method of Probability Method （PM）, and give a case study for Zhangfeng Reservoir. The result shows that the reliability of PM is greater than CSM, namely that the result of CSM is safer than PM, which indicates that Zhangfeng Reservoir has greater capability of water supply.