摘要
A new emergency evacuation car-following model （EECM） is proposed. The model aims to capture the main characteristics of traffic flow and driver behavior under an emergency evacuation, and it is developed on the basis of minimum safety distances with parts of the drivers＇ abnormal behavior in a panic emergency situation. A thorough questionnaire survey is undertaken among drivers of different ages. Based on the results from the survey, a safety-distance car-following model is formulated by taking into account two new parameters： a differential distributing coefficient and a driver＇ s experiential decision coefficient, which are used to reflect variations of driving behaviors under an emergency evacuation situation when compared with regular conditions. The formulation and derivation of the new model, as well as its properties and applicability are discussed. A case study is presented to compare the car-following trajectories using observed data under regular peak-hour traffic conditions and theoretical EECM results. The results indicate the consistency of the analysis of assumptions on the EECM and observations.
提出了一个应急交通疏散车辆跟驰模型(EECM),模型首次在车辆最小安全间距的动力学推导过程中纳入驾驶员心理行为影响因素,使得跟驰过程更客观地反映在紧急疏散状态下的交通流和疏散驾驶行为特性.通过文献研究分析传统跟驰理论与应急交通疏散跟驰特性的区别,并进一步进行驾驶员问卷调查对应急交通疏散条件下的驾驶心理行为特性进行统计分析,提炼出驾驶员行为差异分布系数和经验判断系数2个参数,并将其纳入车辆安全间距的动力学推导过程,建立了基于驾驶行为特性和最小安全间距的应急交通疏散车辆跟驰模型.应用GPS技术对北京东三环劲松路段高峰小时交通流跟驰数据,对EECM进行了比较验证,结论有力地支持了EECM模型及问卷量化分析的合理性.
基金
The National Key Technology R&D Program of China during the 10th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2005BA41B11)
the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.50578003)
