基于不确定性分析的溃坝失事生命损失风险概率估算方法

Risk Probability Evaluation Based on Uncertainty Analysis for Loss of Life by Dam Failure

针对目前国外某些经验模型在预测精度和适用性方面的不足,对估算溃坝失事生命损失风险概率的不确定性分析方法进行了研究,在充分考虑并综合分析大坝失事类型、失事时间、预警时间、历险人数和洪水强度等不确定性因素影响的基础上,提出一种基于不确定性分析和死亡率范围确定的溃坝失事洪灾生命损失概率估算方法,将洪灾情景按不确定性分为15种,并通过对国内外57座大坝失事有关统计数据的不确定性分析,给出了不同失事洪灾情景下可能导致的死亡率范围建议值,工程应用实例表明,所提出的方法更具适用性。

Aimed at the shortages of some experience models overseas in prediction precision and applicability, the uncertainty analysis method is studied for the risk probability evaluation on loss of life by dam failure. According to comprehensively considering and synthetically analyzing the uncertainty factors of dam failure type, breaking time, alarm time, population at risk and flood intensity, a risk probability evaluation method for predicting the loss of life caused by dam failure is proposed, which is based both on uncertainty analysis and on mortality range determination. By classifyi the light of uncertainty and analyzing the uncertainty of statistic data ng the flood scenes as 15 species in for 57 cases of dam failure inland and overseas, the advice values of mortality are offered for each of the flood scenes. A case study on engineering application shows that the life loss risk probability evaluation method based on uncertainty analysis has a wider applicability than present experience models overseas.