国际前20家银行20年起伏原因、规律及启示

Reasons,Laws and Implications of Changes of Top 20 International Banks in Recent 20 Years

本文通过对近20年来国际银行业演进的比较分析,发现经济环境、监管层的政策引导和协调构成银行经营的重要外生变量,银行自身的发展战略、经营策略及管理文化则构成起决定作用的内生变量。国际排名前20家大银行20年的主要发展规律包括任何银行的经营都会受经济周期波动风险影响;银行可能成为泡沫经济的助推器和受害者;金融自由化进程对银行经营的影响很大;跨国购并已成为银行增强竞争力的重要手段;银行资本金的重要性日益凸显以及零售业务和非信贷业务成为银行重要的利润来源等,并深刻总结国际银行业在20年变迁历程中对中资银行的重要启示。

By scrutinizing the evolving history of the international banking in recent 20 years, the authors point out that the economic environment the supervisor＇s policy guide and coordination constitute main exogenous variables of bank＇s operation, and a bank＇s developing strategy, operating tactics and management culture are endogenous and decisive variables. The main developing laws of top 20 international banks in recent 20 years are as follows： （1） any bank＇s operation are affected by risks of business cycles; （2） banks may simultaneously play the roles of boosters and victims of economic bubbles; （3） financial liberalization makes a great impact on banks＇ operation; （4） multinational M＆A has become an important approache for banks to enhance their competence; （5） banks＇ capital gradually comes into an important position; （6） retail business and noncredit business have grown into significant profit sources of banks…Moreover, the paper summarizes the essential experiences for Chinese banking.