北京市安全生产与经济社会发展耦合关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Work Safety and Economical & Social Development in Beijing

调查和研究北京市安全生产历史资料数据,系统地分析生产安全的发展历史、现状、特征与存在的问题;选取3大类18个与安全生产关系密切的经济社会相对指标,通过散点图、相关系数、主因子分析等方法建立了亿元产值死亡率与经济社会相对指标的回归模型;结合目前北京市的安全生产现状,使用差分自回归滑动平均法及趋势分析法,计算未来各类事故死亡人数、亿元产值死亡率的变化趋势,并预测全市安全生产的发展趋势;提出经济社会和安全监管方面的相关对策建议,为有关部门制定政策规划提供理论依据。

Based on the historical work safety data of Beijing, the development history, status quo, features and the problems about work safety are systematically analyzed. By selecting three categories with 18 relative economic and social indexes, and using the multivariate statistical method of scatter diagram, correlation coefficient, factor analysis and so on, the functional relationship model of safety production and economic-social indexes is built. Then, the trends of the mortality per billion outputs, the death number in each kind of accidents are calculated with the regression analysis, difference autoregressive moving average and trend analysis method. Meanwhile, the trends of safety production are forecasted. Finally, countermeasures of economic society and safety supervision are put forwards, which provides theoretical basis for making policy by related departments.