化学工业重大事故的多米诺效应分析

Analysis on Domino Effect of Major Accidents in Chemical Industry

针对化学工业重大事故多米诺效应的严重后果,进行重大事故多米诺效应发生规律的研究。在指出触发重大事故多米诺效应发生条件和发生模式的基础上,设计重大事故多米诺效应的研究程序。借助生成重大火灾爆炸事故场景和其后果分析方法,建立多米诺效应概率分析的数学模型,利用VB开发了多米诺效应计算软件DOMISOFWARE,解决较为复杂的重大事故多米诺效应概率的计算问题。研究表明,爆炸事故总是较火灾事故具有更高触发多米诺效应的可能性,并且火灾和爆炸触发加压设备发生多米诺效应的概率与常压设备相比随间距增大几乎呈线性下降;确定了爆炸和火灾触发多米诺效应的概率和临界距离。研究结果对于化工装置的安全设计和重大事故的预防控制具有重要的指导意义。

Aiming at the severe consequences caused by domino effect of major accidents in chemical industry, the occurring law of domino effect of major accidents is researched. The conditions to trigger domino effect and its modes are pointed out, and the research procedure for domino effect is designed. The mathematical model for the probability analysis of domino effect is established with the help of the method of creating fire ＆ explosion scenario and the method of consequence analysis. Meanwhile, the complex probability calculation of domino effect is solved by the DOMISOFTWARE developed by VB. Study shows that explosion has a higher probability than fire to trigger domino effect. Besides, compared with normal pressure equipment, the probability for domino effect of pressured equipment triggered by fire ＆ explosion nearly decreases in linear line with the increase of distance. Finally, the probability and critical distance for domino effect triggered by fire ＆ explosion are determined. This study would be a scientific guideline for the safety design of chemical equipment and the control of major accidents.