基于层次分析法地铁运营系统安全评价技术的研究

Study on Safety Assessment Techniques for Subway Operation System Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

从系统工程的角度,应用层次分析法的基本原理,构建地铁运营系统AHP(层次分析法)模型,确定地铁运营系统指标体系,将成对比较矩阵的特征向量作为地铁运营系统安全评价因子的权重,确定了相关因子的影响力排序;同时,对层次分析法(AHP)的优缺点进行分析。其结果显示:人的因素和管理的因素是影响地铁安全运营的首要因素;其次为环境的因素;而物的因素排序为最后。该排序基本反映了当前地铁运营系统安全能力的实际状况,为控制和减少事故制定有效对策,提供了依据。

From the view of system engineering, an operation safety model for subway system was established by use of AHP （ analytic hierarchy process） , and corresponding index system was constructed. By taking the eigenvectors of pairing comparison matrices as the weights of each factor, the importance sequence of these assessment factors was determined. Results show that the operation safety of subway system lies mostly on human factor and management factor; then on environment factor and material factor. This conclusion basically reflects the practical situation and provides a basis for shaping effective decisions to reduce accidents as well. In the end, the advantages and disadvantages of AHP were analyzed.