地震预测与预警探讨

Discussion on Earthquake Forecast and Warning

通过对地震预测的自然属性和社会属性的分析,研究了针对自然属性的地震预测和针对社会属性的地震预测(预警)及两者之间的关系。针对自然属性的地震预测,只是根据对观测数据的分析和相关理论的研究,考虑现阶段对地震孕育、发生的认识,给出未来地震发生的规模、地点及时间,不考虑预测后果,目的是检验对地震的科学认识水平。而针对社会属性的地震预测,除依据地震自然属性的预测结果外,还要重点考虑地震预测的后果,除考虑地震预测本身的不确定性以外,还要考虑发布地震预报造成的影响,以及建(构)筑物和生命线工程的抗震能力等复杂因素,总之突出考虑地震预测的风险,目的是最大限度地减轻地震造成的灾害。本文对地震预测面临的科学挑战和社会挑战进行了一定的讨论,并对地震预警的含义和研究内容进行了初步的分析。

Through analysis on natural and social property of earthquake forecast, the relationship with nature and society property for earthquake forecast （warning） had been studied. Based on observation data analysis and correlation theory, considering the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake occurrence, to research into earthquake magnitude, location and occurrence time. It needn＇t consider result of issued earthquake prediction. The purpose is to prove science understanding level for earthquake. As for thinking over social property of earthquake forecast, the authors also consider the result, except nature property of earthquake forecast for issued earthquake prediction, such as earthquake prediction indetermination, influence caused by earthquake prediction, and construction （building）, lifeline works and earthquake resistant capability, and etc. In conclusion, the authors considered mainly the earthquake prediction risk. It is hoped to mitigate earthquake hazard at the maximum limit. In this paper, the authors also discuss the earthquake prediction faced with scientific and social challenge. And, the meanings and content of earthquake warning had been analyzed preliminarily.