东亚区域汇率合作与协调:基于一般均衡模型的分析

General Equilibrium Analysis on Cooperation and Coordination of Exchange Rate of East-Asia

研究东亚货币合作和汇率协调的理论模型在20世纪80年代初期以后获得较快的发展,其中早期的理论模型多是局部均衡分析,或者是应用博弈论建立的理论模型。通过建立三个国家的一般均衡理论模型,我们可以看到东亚各经济体对美元或者日元的单一钉住不如钉住一篮子货币。在东亚汇率合作中,钉住以贸易为权重的货币篮子是一种纳什均衡,它可以缓冲美元与日元汇率变动对各经济体的宏观经济所带来的冲击。

The research on theory model to currency cooperation and exchange rate coordination of Asia became rapidly growing after early 1980s. At early stage research, the theory models of it mostly were partial equilibrium analysis or established model which based on game theory. Through establishment of general equilibrium theory model of three nations, we may understand that pegging to a basket of currencies is better than pegging any single currency no matter U.S. dollar or Japanese Yen to East-Asia economies. Among the cooperation of exchange rate of East-Asia, we peg to trade for the weight of the basket of currencies is a Nash Equilibrium which could buffer the impact to macro-economy of national economies when the turbulance of U.S. dollar of Japanese Yen accured.