我国货币政策有效性的实证研究

Empirical Study on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in China

本文选择有关变量对我国2002-2007年间货币政策进行实证分析,发现2002年来我国的货币政策存在一定程度的失效。导致货币政策部分失效有诸多因素,主要有体制和政策两方面的原因。从体制方面来看,银行上市带来信贷扩张压力;从政策方面看,利率和汇率机制不够完善导致货币政策失效。针对失效原因,作者从加强政府体制建设、完善货币政策体系、搭配运用财政与货币政策、完善货币政策传导机制等四个方面提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper finds out that monetary policy in 2002 was ineffective to some extent after empirical study on the monetary policy during 2002 and 2007 in China using relevant variables. The ineffectiveness may be caused by many factors, but mainly by institutional factors and policy factors. From institutional factors, the IPO of banks brings pressure to credit augmentation, while from the policy factors, the imperfection of interest rate and exchange rate formation mechanism leads to ineffectiveness of monetary policy. To address the above-mentioned causes of ineffectiveness, the author raises policy suggestions from four aspects accordingly, namely, to intensify governmental institutional infrastructure, to perfect monetary policy system, to combine fiscal policy with monetary policy and to optimize monetary policy transmission mechanism.