实际有效汇率、财政赤字与中国经济增长

Real Effective Exchange Rate,Fiscal Deficit and the Economic Growth in China

近年来中国经济持续出现内部失衡和外部失衡,与人民币汇率波动和持续多年的财政赤字不无关系。本文运用向量自回归模型(VAR)实证考察了人民币汇率升值与财政赤字规模的变动对中国经济增长的影响,以及它们之间的相互作用机理和影响途径。基于实证分析的结论,本文认为改变外向型导向的财政支出结构可以有效缓解当前国际收支顺差对人民币升值的压力,另一方面,人民币币值上升不仅不会逆转我国经济长期增长的态势,反而可以提高国内货币政策对宏观经济调控的敏捷性和有效性,并有利于我国经济的长期增长。

Chinese economy has been in a state of internal and external imbal- ances for many years, which has something to do with the undervaluation of RMB and the fiscal deficit policy, This paper not only empirically studies the effects of RMB real effective exchange rate and fiscal deficit on Chinese economic growth, but also analyses the interactive relationship among RMB real effective exchange rate, fiscal deficit and the Chinese economic growth. The econometric results of the Vector Autoregressive Model help us to put forward some policy suggestions.