中国能源消费的弹性系数:估计与分析

The Elasticity Coefficients of Chinese Energy Consumption:Estimation and Analysis

基于协整、动态最小二乘法与误差修正模型,本文对1953年以来的中国能源消费的收入弹性系数、价格弹性系数与结构弹性系数进行了估计与分析。经济增长与产业结构变化均能对能源消费产生显著影响,但能源价格的影响相对微弱。GDP增长1个百分点将增加能源消费1833万吨标准煤,这与最近6年经济运行的实际情况吻合地很好。工业在GDP中的比重提高1个百分点将增加能源消费3136万吨标准煤,能源价格增长1个百分点将抑制能源需求813万吨标准煤。过去50年中,经济增长消费了约90%的能源,10%左右的能源被浪费。得到的主要政策思路是:政府要想更大地发挥能源价格对能源消费的调节作用,必须让市场主导能源价格机制的形成;推动产业结构升级或降低工业能耗对于实现能源发展"十一五"规划27亿吨标准煤的总量控制目标具有重要意义。

The income elasticity coefficients, price elasticity coefficients and structural elasticity coefficients of Chinese energy consumption between 1953 and 2005 are estimated and analyzed based on cointegration, dynamic OLS and errorcorrection model. Economic growth and structural change can affect energy consumption obviously. 1% increase of GDP results in 18.33 million tons of SCE increase which matches the real economy very well and 1% structural change results in 31.36 million tons of SCE change. Compared with economic growth and structural change, the effect of energy pricebe is less. In the past fifty years economic growth consumes 90%o energy and the other 10% is wasted. The main policy conclusion is that government should make energy price be decided by market, upgrade industrial structure or save energy use for industry.