汇率变化对不同类商品进出口的影响

Impact of Exchange Rate Adjustment on Classified Imports and Exports

本文主要分析人民币汇率的变化对我国不同类商品进出口的影响。研究发现,对外贸易商品构成的不同特征和各类商品汇率弹性之间的差异,是人民币升值后我国贸易顺差仍不断增长的重要原因之一。人民币汇率政策的制定应根据进出口不同时期的商品构成特征实施相机抉择;人民币的汇率变化不宜持续单方向;人民币持续升值的同时应防止"流动性陷阱"带来的危害并实施适度较高的利率。

This paper gives a study on the impact of RMB exchange rate adjustment on our classified imports and exports. It shows that special features of foreign trade products structure and difference of classified exchange rate elasticity, are ones of the key resaons that our trade surplus goes up with the appreciation of RMB. Based on this conclusion, we suggest that we should take the special features of foreign trade products structure into account when we make decision on our exchange rate policy. Changes in RMB exchange rate should not be in a single direction. We should prevent the harm of Liquidity Trap and keep RMB interest rate in a moderate higher level.