中亚三国对俄出口天然气涨价的影响初探

A preliminary study on the impact of the price rising of natural gas exported to Russia from three central Asian countries

哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦和土库曼斯坦将自2009年起联合提高对俄出口天然气售价,此举是这些国家争取中亚和本国能源利益的一次重要尝试,将产生巨大的地缘经济和地缘政治影响:有可能迫使俄罗斯调整能源战略,削弱俄对中亚及其他独联体国家的控制能力,使欧洲能源安全面临新挑战,加速中亚一体化进程,加剧环里海大国能源博弈,并且可能波及我国与中亚国家及俄罗斯的天然气合作。我国应加强与俄罗斯的战略协作,强化上海合作组织的能源合作,继续加强与哈萨克斯坦、土库曼斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦的友好合作,共同争取建立比较合理和有序的环里海天然气供应体系。

Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will jointly raise the price of natural gas exported to Russia from 2009. It is an important attempt of these countries to strive for energy interests for central Asia and themselves, which will exert huge regional economic and political impact. It may compel Russia to adjust its energy strategy, diminish the control of Russia on central Asia and other CIS countries, pose new challenges for energy security in Europe, accelerate the integration of central Asia, intensify the energy wrestling between major powers surrounding the Caspian Sea, and influence the energy cooperation between China and countries in central Asia as well as Russia. We should enhance the strategic cooperation with Russia, strengthen the energy cooperation of Shanghai Cooperation Organization, continue to boost the friendly cooperation with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and mutually strive to develop a reasonable and orderly natural gas supply system surrounding the Caspian Sea.