出口贸易相关因素的实证研究——对中国1981～2005年数据的PLS分析

Demonstrative research of export trade's relative factor——PLS analysis on Chinese 1981～2005 data

运用偏最小二乘(PLS)回归方法,将影响中国出口贸易的因素归纳为3个因子:外部拉动与内部直接推动因子、金融因子和贸易条件因子;建立了出口贸易与其影响因素间的经济计量模型,实证分析发现贸易条件对出口贸易影响显著,而加工贸易进口和外商直接投资影响微弱,但金融因素的作用不容忽视。最后提出相应的调控措施,使得出口贸易按照政府的宏观经济目标顺利运行。

By the method of Partial least-square,the paper classifies the elements which influences China’s export trade into three factors：external drag ＆ inner direct push、finance and terms of trade,and establishes an econometrical model.In empirical analysis,it finds that terms of trade effect export trade significantly, import trade for processing and foreign direct investment do weakly,but the role of financial elements is not ignored.In the end,it put forwards corresponding adjustment measures to make export trade run smoothly according to Government＇s macro-economics goals.