峰谷分时电价用户响应建模与定价决策综述

Modeling of customer response to time-of-use electricity price and decision-making on pricing

认为峰谷分时电价的实施效果与用户响应、定价决策密切相关。基于电力需求价格弹性矩阵、消费者心理学以及统计学原理,在对用户响应建模进行介绍的基础上,对TOU定价决策的研究现状进行了综述,并从量化分析、机制设计、风险管理以及协调优化角度,提出当前该领域需要研究的新问题。从改进系统平均负荷率角度,指出实施TOU在考虑经济性时,要以量化的指标反映负荷短时激增后为中断可中断负荷所付出的事故风险,兼顾实施方案的可靠性与经济性。

It is considered that the implement result of time-of-use （TOU） electricity price has direct relationship with customer response and decision-making on pricing. The customer response modeling is presented, and research on TOU pricing is summarized based on the price elasticity matrix of electricity demand, the customer psychology, and statistics theories. New issues that need further study are proposed from the point of view of quantitative analysis, mechanism design, risk management, and coordination optimization. As to improvement of the system＇s average load rate, it is pointed out that in order to ensure both reliability and economy of TOU implement schemes, quantitative indices should be used to reflect the risk cost caused by interrupting the interruptible loads when electricity demand jumps.