针对气象因素的短期负荷预测修正方法

A Short-term Load Forecasting Correction Method Considering Climatic Factors

由于受气象因素的影响,目前的短期负荷预测方法的结果误差往往偏大,需要进行人工修正。文中通过分析多种气象因子与电网负荷的相关性,找出气象因素与电网负荷的对应关系。在此基础上给出了经验性的修正模型库的建立方法,并针对湿度、降雨、温度、气压等因素建立了相应的修正模型,编制出符合负荷预测要求的实用软件。测试结果表明,由于考虑了气象因素的影响,预测模型具有较好的精度。

To correct the relatively big errors caused by climatic factors, human being intervention is often needed in the shortterm load forecasting to improve forecasting results. By analyzing the co-relationships between climatic factors and electric loads, an experience based model correction method is proposed. Correction models and software corresponding to the humidity, rainfall, temperature, and air pressure conditions respectively are developed. Test results show that the proposed model has a high level precision due to the consideration of climate factors.