中国东部史前地震事件的识别问题

Identification of Prehistoric Earthquake Events in Eastern China

中国东部地区气候湿润,物理化学风化作用强烈,加上地震周期长,人类活动频繁,地质事件遗迹难寻;另一方面,东部地区经济蓬勃发展,建(构)筑物和公众地震安全要求攀升。本文为解决这一日益尖锐矛盾作了相应综述和分析,并提出了一些建议:从经验预报统计样本局限性分析入手,综述史前地震识别标志和事件时序的分析研究现状,在此基础上提出了中国东部地区史前地震事件强化研究思路,即充分利用大规模考古发掘和工程所揭露的机遇,抢救性编录、分析。同时与考古、地质等相关部门联手,反演并重构全新世以来天然变形事件时序,用于弥补经验性预报的样本局限,从而科学预测地震趋势。作者的初步实践表明,这一思路是可行的,通过持之以恒的努力,有望达到预期目标。

Humid climate, strong physical and chemical weathering action, long earthquake reoccurrence, and frequent human activity make it difficult to find prehistoric earthquake event relics in eastern China. In this paper, we reviewed the recent development in prehistoric earthquake study in China and abroad, analyzed several case studies in archeological and geological fields, and then pointed out some key work that plays important role in prehistoric earthquake study in eastern China. Such work includes： taking full advantages of archeology disentombbing and engineering exposure cosmically, recording and analyzing as soon as possible, and rebuilding the sequence of natural deformation event.