中国名山旅游地成长理论与实证分析

An Analysis on Tourist Area Growth Theory and Demonstration of Mount Interest Areas in China

在Butler旅游生命周期理论和前人工作的基础上,结合中国旅游发展特点,尝试构建旅游地非线性成长模式,主要内容包括两个方面:一是定义旅游地成长横向比较的基本参数,在单周期旅游地的成长S型曲线上界定了导入点、转折点、成熟点、逻辑边界等概念;二是在更长的时间尺度上,将旅游地的成长看成是具有分岔结构的非线性模式,建立了数学模型,给出了分岔点和4种不同的成长模式。最后,以泰山、黄山、普陀山、武夷山4个旅游地为例,运用1979～2005年客流量统计数据对其进行了实证分析,计算出各个参数并进行两个周期的模拟,在此基础上分析成长特点与主要影响因素,为中国旅游地成长的研究提供一定的参考。

Based on Butler＇ s tourist area lifecycle theory and many related achievements of others, considering with the developing characteristics of China tourism, this paper attempts to set up a non-linear growth model of tourist area, which includes mainly two points： firstly, the basic comparative parameters of different tourist areas are given for a S-type growth curve of one lifecycle, in which the new feature points are defined such as introducing point, turning point, maturation point and logic limits and so on; secondly, in the longer time scale, the growth of tourist area is considered as a non-linear model with branch points, a mathematical model is built, then the concept of branch point and different four growing styles are described in this paper. At last, with statistical tourists data of four typical mount tourist areas of Taishan Mount, Huangshan Mount, Putuo Mount and Wuyi Mount, this article shows demonstration analyses, counts out their parameters and carries out numerical simulations of two lifecycles, then summarizes the different growing characteristics and main affected sectors and will make a reference for the study on the growth of China tourist areas.