市场经济条件下珍贵可再生资源之灭绝探析

ANALYSIS ABOUT THE EXTINCTION OF PRECIOUS RENEWABLE RESOURCES IN MARKET ECONOMY

关于因人类耗用行为而导致可再生资源灭绝的理论研究，应该以个体理性下的短期利益最大化为假定。通过构建此类模型，对珍贵可再生自然资源的灭绝问题进行了探讨。可再生资源的再生速度起初随着资源存量的减少而增大，后来又随着资源存量的减少而减小。据此建立再生速度（V1）函数。在假定资源消耗满足边际产出递减规律的基础上，建立消耗资源的总成本（C）函数；由不可替代性、无法人为增加供给这两个特点出发，对珍贵可再生资源的概念进行了界定，并构造其价格（P）函数。由C和P函数，可以推导出市场经济条件下、资源消耗主体利润最大化时的珍贵可再生资源的消耗速度（V2^8）函数。然后，通过V1与V2^＊函数的对比讨论，对珍贵可再生资源的灭绝做出理论解释。最后，从模型出发，有针对性地提出了应对措施。并特别指出，如果政府能完全控制资源的消耗，则不但能防止资源灭绝，还可以使人们长久地获取更多的资源；技术是解决灭绝问题的根本出路。

The research on the extinction of renewable resources caused by human exploitation should be based on individual rationality and benefit-maximization in the short run. Following this rule, this paper analyzed the extinction of precious renewable resources （PRR） by modeling. The renewing speed of renewable resources increases at first as the stock of resources decreases. However, it will decrease if the stock is less than a certain amount. Accordingly,its function is constructed. The total cost function of exploitation is built on the condition where the activities follow the rule of Diminishing Marginal Product. The concept of PRR is defined and the selling price function is built on the basis of PPR＇s two characteristics,i, e. non-substitution and unproducibility by people. From the two functions above,this paper deduced the speed function of exploiting PRR when the exploiters＇ profit maximized in the market economy. Based on these models,the extinction of PRR is explained theoretically. In the end, some pertinent measures are proposed according to the model. Besides,we argued that people may avoid the extinction and get more resources permanently if the government manages to control the exploitation and that the ultimate solution resorts to the development of technology.